As
Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?
By
Steven Erlanger (*)
New
York Times, April 29, 2010
Washington.-
With new European Union leaders practically invisible and
some national leaders acting largely for domestic political
reasons, the burden of shaping a rapid and credible
restructuring program for Greece has fallen primarily to the
International Monetary Fund – exactly where proud European
Union leaders had insisted it should not be.
Once
again – as during the 2008 financial crisis and the more
recent halt in European air traffic due to volcanic ash –
European leaders have failed to surmount national interests
and cobble together a coherent policy quickly enough to
address a problem. In the process, they may have done
permanent damage to the credibility of the European Union.
“There
is no doubt that the European project has suffered
structural damage from this,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a
research fellow in European affairs and structural reform at
the Peterson Institute for International Economics here.
“It’s clear that the I.M.F. is the last man standing and
is structuring the program.”
Criticism
is rising about the competence of European leaders, which
has worsened the plight of all the countries in the euro
zone.
Senior
United States officials, while not wanting to interfere in a
European problem, have nonetheless expressed their anxiety
to European counterparts and to the monetary fund itself.
President Obama called Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany
on Wednesday to lend his support and encouragement for her
willingness to take a bolder position to try to calm the
markets.
Mrs.
Merkel has been the central figure in the debt crisis, as
she has tried to respond to German voters’ displeasure at
having to bail out Greece, after years of bailing out
eastern Germany. She delayed action on the problem for
months, hoping to put it off until after critical regional
elections on May 9.
Ultimately,
that proved impossible. But her foot-dragging, combined with
her insistence that Greece pay a severe long-term price for
its profligacy and that the German Parliament approve any
bailout, gave the markets both reason and room to run up the
price of Greek debt to unsustainable levels. That forced the
International Monetary Fund and the Europeans on Wednesday
to practically quadruple the commitment to Greece, to try to
calm the markets and not turn their attention to Portugal,
another weak reed.
“The
fact that a German regional election can play such a
disproportionate role in messing up efforts to contain what
was a much smaller crisis several months ago is
astonishing,” Mr. Kirkegaard said. And the fact that there
will be no European Union summit meeting until May 10, after
the German elections, “is so blatantly political,” he
said.
“This
is no way for an E.U. that has to contain an accelerating
crisis and market panic to behave,” Mr. Kirkegaard said.
The
European monetary union was simply “not ready for bad
weather,” said Janis A. Emmanouilidis, a senior policy
analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels, saying it
had no mechanisms in place to deal with issues of debt or
the potential default of a member state. “In the absence
of such clear mechanisms, you need political leadership,”
he said. “But the past months have seen a lack of
leadership.”
The
same problem was raised earlier this month by the ban on
European air travel because of the ash spewed by an
Icelandic volcano. With no European Union agreement
governing European airspace, national leaders struggled,
with astounding delays, to coordinate a policy while both
airlines and passengers suffered.
But
even worse, “the current crisis has done enormous
political damage,” Mr. Emmanouilidis said. “It is
decreasing the trust among member states,” he said, with
Germany feeling betrayed by the “Club Med” countries of
southern Europe, while those nations feel that Germany has
procrastinated and shown an egregious lack of solidarity.
The
outspoken Greek deputy prime minister, Theodoros Pangalos,
has said that European Union leaders were “not up to the
scale of the task” in dealing with the crisis.
“I
believe if Delors was in charge in Europe, Mitterrand in
France and Kohl in Germany, things would not be the same,”
he told Greek television in February, referring to the
former president of the European Commission, Jacques Delors;
the former French president, François Mitterrand; and the
former German chancellor, Helmut Kohl.
While
there is blame to go around on the national level, there is
also finger-pointing at the new European Union leadership.
Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, has
been largely invisible in his efforts to coordinate national
leaders.
A
French member of the European Parliament, Philippe Juvin,
vented to Agence France-Presse: “Where is the president of
the European Council? What is the president of the
Commission doing? Is there a European pilot in the Greek
crisis? Or are they waiting for the collapse of the euro?”
But
the Lisbon Treaty that created Mr. Van Rompuy’s position,
and which was intended to make the enlarged European Union
more agile and coherent, deliberately left out powers for
coordinating fiscal policies, which are the fiercely guarded
prerogative of the separate nations. Even so, countries like
Germany can only blame themselves for not insisting on
realistic European oversight of Greek statistics, which were
widely believed to be false for two decades.
Some
analysts argue that this latest crisis will inevitably mean
further European integration, with more fiscal oversight and
coordination. Constance Le Grip, a French member of the
European Parliament, said that “it is clear that the
E.U.’s hesitations have worsened the Greek situation.”
She
added: “Pragmatism and the E.U.’s adaptation skills are
not sufficient anymore. We have to create new institutional
responsibilities, for a new European economic government.”
But
others are doubtful, arguing that most Europeans are already
fed up with “more Europe” and that Germany, which might
like to meddle in the budgets of others, would never accept
any meddling in its own. It is also very likely that the
German Constitutional Court, which has put limits on the
ceding of sovereignty, would throw out any such oversight.
Some,
like Mr. Kirkegaard, fear that the German court will rule
against the Greek bailout funds, too, especially if they are
spread out, as now envisaged, over a three-year period.
Still,
this continuing crisis is leading to a more fundamental one,
about European and national capabilities. “Questions are
asked to nations, not to the E.U. – but nations cannot
deal with this problem alone,” said Dominique Reynié,
director of the Foundation for Political Innovation and a
political scientist at the Institut d’Études Politiques
de Paris. “The silence of the E.U. and its institutions
has become deafening. It is incapable of demonstrating that
an entity called Europe exists. This is a situation that
cannot go on.”
The
European Union “seems to be in a state of permanent
self-promotion,” he said. “But it cannot ask its voters
to relinquish part of their nations’ sovereignty and then
not answer the call when there’s a problem.”
*
Maïa de la Baume and Nadim Audi contributed reporting from
Paris.
Europe
Acts Swiftly on Long-Delayed Greek Bailout
By
Nicholas Kulish and Dan Bilefsky (*)
New
York Times, April 29, 2010
Berlin
– European leaders raced Thursday to complete their part
of a long-delayed financial rescue package for Greece,
hoping to head off a chain reaction against other heavily
indebted European nations that could turn into a financial
meltdown across the continent.
After
balking for months at bailing out the Greek economy, leaders
in Germany attacked the crisis with a newfound urgency. One
day after Chancellor Angela Merkel declared her support for
swift action, opposition parties in Berlin signaled a
willingness to move quickly on legislation to send billions
in loans to Athens before it needs to repay bondholders more
than $10 billion on May 19.
Markets
reacted positively Thursday to the news of a plan that would
provide up to $160 billion from the International Monetary
Fund and the other countries that use the euro currency. The
euro strengthened against the dollar on the news, after
hitting a one-year low the day before, and the cost of
insuring against the default of European bonds fell.
European
leaders – many of whom resisted the involvement of the
I.M.F. and who have now been prodded to action by its
director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn – have struggled for
months for an effective response to the Greek problem. In
the process, critics say, the costs of a bailout have
mounted drastically.
And
there was fresh skepticism on Thursday whether the latest
proposal would calm the markets for more than a day, in a
crisis where official promises of action have been followed
by new delays and a steady stream of bad news, like the
downgrades this week of the debt of Greece, Portugal and
Spain.
Financial
experts expressed fears on Thursday that Mrs. Merkel might
have waited so long that the contagion had spread beyond
even Germany’s ability to contain it. “These downgrades
this week show that the market has taken over,” said
Alfred Steinherr, research professor at the DIW research
institute in Berlin and a former chief economist at the
European Investment Bank. “Now, it is very difficult for
policy makers to take it back into their own hands.”
There
is a risk now that “even Germany will become financially
overburdened,” Dr. Steinherr said, if it is forced to pay
tens or hundreds of billions to Greece and possibly other
euro-area countries like Portugal and Spain. “And that
would then become really a huge crisis.”
European
leaders tried to claim the initiative and show that they
were working together to calm market fears over Greece’s
tide of debt and the long-term viability of the euro
currency. Traveling in Beijing on Thursday, President
Nicolas Sarkozy of France told reporters that he was in
constant contact with Mrs. Merkel and that Germany and
France were “in perfect agreement” on how to deal with
the crisis, a spokesman for the president in Paris
confirmed.
Negotiators
in Athens pushed to wrap up an agreement for significant
cuts in Greek public spending to clear the way for the
government to get financing and reassure investors worldwide
that European debt was safe.
The
Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, met with labor
leaders on Thursday to persuade them to accept austerity
measures that the government hopes will help clear the way
to securing the bailout package.
After
the meeting, Ilias Iliopoulos, the general secretary of
Adedy, the largest public employees union, said in an
interview that union officials had been informed that Greece
had been asked to raise its value-added tax to 25 percent
and to accept a three-year pay freeze.
He
said Mr. Papandreou also intended to introduce new rules to
let companies reduce their work forces by 4 percent a month
instead of the current 2 percent, and to increase taxes on
fuel, tobacco and alcohol.
In
Greece, where taking to the streets is a national pastime,
some observers have feared a backlash. But analysts said
that Greek public opinion, opposition parties and even the
unions realized the gravity of the situation and were
unlikely to succeed in blocking measures that were necessary
to save the country from economic collapse.
“The
reaction of the unions so far has been mild by Greek
standards,” said Nikos Magginas, senior economist at the
National Bank of Greece, the country’s largest commercial
bank. “Public opinion in Greece is in shock and realizes
that Greeks have no other choice but to do what is necessary
to prevent economic collapse. A social consensus exists that
this is necessary.”
European
leaders also sought to head off a harsh public reaction to
the bailout plan. Olli Rehn, the European Union commissioner
for monetary affairs, said at a news conference in Brussels
on Thursday that the loan package would be a benefit to all
member states sharing the euro currency – not just a sop
for spendthrift Greeks. “This is absolutely crucial for
our economic recovery,” he said.
Prominent
German officials, including President Horst Köhler and Axel
Weber, the president of the German Bundesbank, made public
statements in support of Mrs. Merkel’s plan, with a
similar emphasis on the benefits to Germany from such an
agreement.
“Germany
should, in its own interest, provide its contribution to the
stabilization,” Mr. Köhler said in a televised speech in
Munich.
“The
German taxpayer profits from a stable euro, and that holds
for protecting it,” Mr. Weber told Germany’s
highest-circulation newspaper, the tabloid Bild, which has
hammered relentlessly on the theme of Greek greed and
wastefulness since the crisis began this year. The interview
with Mr. Weber ran on the second page of the paper, while a
giant headline on the front page declared, “Greeks want
even more billions from us!”
“If
Greece is allowed to fail, the damage to the German budget
and German taxpayers will with certainty be greater than if
we rescue it,” said Roland Koch, state premier in Hessen
and a leading member of Mrs. Merkel’s Christian Democrats,
in an interview on Thursday with the daily newspaper
Berliner Zeitung. “The faster a decision is made, the less
harm will arise,” Mr. Koch said.
It
was unclear whether the pleas were having much impact. A
poll of a thousand adults by the research group Emnid on
behalf of the television news channel N24 found that 76
percent of those surveyed said they did not believe Greece
would repay its debts, compared with just 19 percent who
thought it could.
“You
don’t help an alcoholic by putting a bottle of schnapps in
front of him,” said Frank Schäffler, a member of the
Finance Committee in the German Parliament for the
pro-business Free Democrats, the junior member of Mrs.
Merkel’s governing coalition. But even Mr. Schäffler said
the proposal was likely to pass Parliament quickly, now that
opposition parties like the Social Democrats and the Greens
were prepared to act.
“The
population in Germany is with a very, very great majority
against, and the Parliament will probably approve it with a
very great majority,” Mr. Schäffler said.
Germany
will raise its share of the money through KfW, the state
development bank, according to lawmakers and a letter
attached to a draft version of the bill sent out this week.
The legislation is one page long and includes a one-page
explanatory statement. In the version of the bill circulated
to members of the government on Tuesday, the sum of $11
billion is listed for this year. The figure for the
following two years was yet to be filled in.
*
Dan Bilefsky reported from Athens. Reporting was contributed
by Jack Ewing from Frankfurt, Matthew Saltmarsh and Katrin
Bennhold from Paris and James Kanter from Brussels.
Euro
Rises After I.M.F. Increases Aid Pledge to Greece
By
Landon Thomas Jr. and Nicholas Kulish (*)
New
York Times, April 29, 2010
European
stocks rose modestly and the euro halted its decline
Thursday, a day after the International Monetary Fund
promised to increase the 45 billion euro aid package for
Greece to as much as 120 billion euros over three years to
quell the I.M.F.’s biggest crisis since the Asian woes of
1997.
The
fund is racing to conclude an agreement for more painful
austerity measures from Greece by Monday, clearing the way
for the government in Athens to receive funding and to
reassure investors worldwide that European debt is safe.
On
Wednesday, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the I.M.F.’s forceful
managing director, pledged the additional aid in a private
meeting with German legislators. The package would be the
equivalent of up to $160 billion and would come from both
the I.M.F. and from Germany and other countries using the
euro.
But
as has frequently been the case during Europe’s debt
crisis, the promise of help was overshadowed by more
disturbing news – in this case, a cut in the debt rating
of Spain by a major agency just a day after downgrades for
Portugal and Greece.
The
growing fear is that the fallout from Greece and even
Portugal, which together compose just 5 percent of European
economic activity, could be a mere sideshow if Spain, with
its much larger economy, has difficulty repaying its debt.
By
Thursday afternoon the euro was at $1.3254, up from $1.3220
late Wednesday in New York. The Euro Stoxx 50 index, a
barometer of euro-zone blue chips, rose 1.4 percent, and the
FTSE-100 index in London rose 0.6 percent.
Shares
in the United States were higher as market attention on Wall
Street shifted toward the stronger results from corporate
earnings reports.
Most
major Asian markets fell, with both the Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong and the S.&P./ASX 200 index in Sydney dropping
0.8 percent. Tokyo markets were closed for a holiday.
In
many ways, the current troubles in Europe go to the heart of
the monetary fund’s new mission to serve as a firewall in
the financial crisis – an objective bolstered by $750
billion in fresh capital from the Group of 20 countries last
year.
Unlike
its previous efforts in smaller, emerging economies in Asia
in 1997, and more recently in Hungary, Romania, Latvia and
Iceland, the International Monetary Fund has been hamstrung
in its efforts to act quickly and decisively by political
concerns within the European Union, which insists on
assuming a leading role.
“It
is a problem,” said Alessandro Leipold, a former acting
director of the fund’s European department. “It should
not be that difficult – they did it in Hungary and Latvia.
But the egos are different in industrialized countries.”
A
case can be made that if Greece had sought help from the
fund late last year after the forecast for its budget
deficit doubled, the amount of support needed to reassure
investors would have been much less than the 120 billion
euros that even now might not be enough.
In
that vein, Mr. Leipold said Portugal and Spain should ignore
any stigma associated with an International Monetary Fund
program and make the case to the European Commission in
Brussels that asking for aid now would soothe skeptical
markets and save Europe billions in the future.
“The
market has seen its worst fears come true,” he said.
“What it needs is a surprise on the upside.”
Concerns
have already surfaced in Washington that the broad demands
of the sovereign debt crisis will quickly exhaust the
fund’s reserves and leave the United States, the fund’s
largest shareholder, with the bill.
Representative
Mark Kirk, a Republican from Illinois, said such a drain
could occur if Portugal, Ireland and Spain all sought aid at
the same time. Mr. Kirk worked at the World Bank during the
1982 debt crisis in Mexico, which came close to depleting
the fund’s reserves.
“We
have seen this movie before,” he said. “Spain is five
times as big as Greece – that would mean a package of 500
billion.”
Mr.
Kirk sits on the House Appropriations Committee that
oversees I.M.F. funds and said that he had already asked for
hearings on the fund’s ability to handle a European
collapse.
In
Athens, the Greek government had no choice but to seek a
solution with the monetary fund after its costs of borrowing
skyrocketed, but that has not made the negotiations for aid
any easier.
The
fund has sent one its most senior staff members, Poul
Thomsen, who has overseen complex fund negotiations in
Iceland and Russia, to assist Bob Traa, the official
responsible for Greece, to work out a solution.
According
to people who have been briefed on the talks, the aim is to
secure from Greece a letter of intent for even deeper budget
cuts than the tough measures imposed so far, like reductions
in civil service pay, in exchange for emergency funds.
Steps
being discussed include closing down parts of the
little-used Greek railway system, which employs 7,000 people
and is estimated to lose a few million euros a day; limiting
unions’ ability to impose collective bargaining
agreements, which lead to ever-higher public sector pay;
cutting out the two months of pay that private-sector
workers get on top of their annual pay packages; increasing
the retirement age and cutting back on pensions; and opening
up the country’s trucking market in an effort to lower
extremely high transportation rates that have hindered the
country’s competitiveness.
With
Greece now shut out of the debt markets, it has little
leverage to resist – especially in light of the 8 billion
euros it needs to repay bondholders on May 19. Analysts
expect a deal by next week at the latest.
But
whether a Greek resolution calms investor fears about the
ability of Portugal and Spain to repay their own maturing
debt remains unclear.
In
a recent note to investors, Ray Dalio, founder of
Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge
funds, described the market concern as intensely focused on
Spain.
“Spain’s
cash flows (current account and budget deficit) are
extremely bad,” Mr. Dalio and his colleagues wrote in a
February letter. “Spain’s living standards are reliant
on not just the roll of old debt, but also on significant
further external lending. For these reasons, we don’t want
to hold Spanish debt at these spreads.”
*
David Jolly, Matthew Saltmarsh and Sewell Chan contributed
reporting.
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