If I were one of the big corporate donors who
bankrolled the Republican tide that carried into office more
than 50 new Republicans in the House, I would be wary of
what you just bought. For no matter your view of President
Obama, he effectively saved capitalism. And for that, he
paid a terrible political price.
Suppose you had $100,000 to invest on the day Barack
Obama was inaugurated. Why bet on a liberal Democrat? Here's
why: the presidency of George W. Bush produced the worst
stock market decline of any president in history. The net
worth of American households collapsed as Bush slipped away.
And if you needed a loan to buy a house or stay in business,
private sector borrowing was dead when he handed over power.
As of election day, Nov. 2, 2010, your $100,000 was
worth about $177,000 if invested strictly in the NASDAQ
average for the entirety of the Obama administration, and
$148,000 if bet on the Standard & Poors 500 major
companies. This works out to returns of 77 percent and 48
percent.
But markets, though forward-looking, are not considered
accurate measurements of the economy, and the Great
Recession skewed the Bush numbers. O.K. How about looking at
the big financial institutions that keep the motors of
capitalism running - banks and auto companies?
The banking system was resuscitated by $700 billion in
bailouts started by Bush (a fact unknown by a majority of
Americans), and finished by Obama, with help from the
Federal Reserve. It worked. The government is expected to
break even on a risky bet to stabilize the global free
market system. Had Obama followed the populist instincts of
many in his party, the underpinnings of big capitalism could
have collapsed. He did this without nationalizing banks, as
other Democrats had urged.
Saving the American auto industry, which has been a
huge drag on Obama's political capital, is a monumental
achievement that few appreciate, unless you live in Michigan.
After getting their taxpayer lifeline from Obama, both
General Motors and Chrysler are now making money by making
cars. New plants are even scheduled to open. More than 1
million jobs would have disappeared had the domestic auto
sector been liquidated.
"An apology is due Barack Obama," wrote The
Economist, which had opposed the $86 billion auto bailout.
As for Government Motors: after emerging from bankruptcy, it
will go public with a new stock offering in just a few weeks,
and the United States government, with its 60 percent share
of common stock, stands to make a profit. Yes, an industry
was saved, and the government will probably make money on
the deal - one of Obama's signature economic successes.
Interest rates are at record lows. Corporate profits
are lighting up boardrooms; it is one of the best years for
earnings in a decade.
All of the above is good for capitalism, and should end
any serious-minded discussion about Obama the socialist. But
more than anything, the fact that the president took on the
structural flaws of a broken free enterprise system instead
of focusing on things that the average voter could
understand explains why his party was routed on Tuesday.
Obama got on the wrong side of voter anxiety in a decade of
diminished fortunes.
"We have done things that people don't even know
about," Obama told Jon Stewart. Certainly. The three
signature accomplishments of his first two years - a health
care law that will make life easier for millions of people,
financial reform that attempts to level the playing field
with Wall Street, and the $814 billion stimulus package -
have all been recast as big government blunders, rejected by
the emerging majority.
But each of them, in its way, should strengthen the
system. The health law will hold costs down, while giving
millions the chance at getting care, according to the
nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Financial reform
seeks to prevent the kind of meltdown that caused the global
economic collapse. And the stimulus, though it drastically
raised the deficit, saved about 3 million jobs, again
according to the CBO. It also gave a majority of taxpayers a
one-time cut - even if 90 percent of Americans don't know
that, either.
Of course, nobody gets credit for preventing a plane
crash. "It could have been much worse!" is not a
rallying cry. And, more telling, despite a meager uptick in
job growth this year, the unemployment rate rose from 7.6
percent in the month Obama took office to 9.6 today.
Billions of profits, windfalls in the stock market, a
stable banking system - but no jobs.
Of course, the big money interests who benefited from
Obama's initiatives have shown no appreciation. Obama, as a
senator, voted against the initial bailout of AIG, the
reckless insurance giant. As president, he extended them
treasury loans at a time when economists said he must - or
risk further meltdown. Their response was to give themselves
$165 million in executive bonuses, and funnel money to
Republicans this year.
Money flows one way, to power, now held by the party
that promises tax cuts and deregulation - which should
please big business even more.
President Franklin Roosevelt also saved capitalism, in
part by a bank "holiday" in 1933, at a time when
the free enterprise system had failed. Unlike Obama, he was
rewarded with midterm gains for his own party because a
majority liked where he was taking the country. The bank
holiday was incidental to a larger public works campaign.
Obama can recast himself as the consumer's best friend,
and welcome the animus of Wall Street. He should hector the
companies sitting on piles of cash but not hiring new
workers. For those who do hire, and create new jobs, he can
offer tax incentives. He should finger the financial giants
for refusing to clean up their own mess in the foreclosure
crisis. He should point to the long overdue protections for
credit card holders that came with reform.
And he should veto, veto, veto any bill that attempts
to roll back some of the basic protections for people
against the institutions that have so much control over
their lives - insurance companies, Wall Street and big oil.
They will whine a fierce storm, the manipulators of
great wealth. A war on business, they will claim. Not even
close. Obama saved them, and the biggest cost was to him.
(*) Timothy Egan worked for The Times for 18 years - as
Pacific Northwest correspondent and a national enterprise
reporter. His column on American politics and life as seen
from the West Coast appears here on Thursdays. In 2001, he
was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team that wrote the
series "How Race Is Lived in America." He is the
author of several books, including "The Worst Hard
Time," a history of the Dust Bowl, for which he won the
National Book Award, and most recently, "The Big Burn:
Teddy Roosevelt and the Fire That Saved America."
Deep Rifts Divide Obama and Republicans
WASHINGTON - President Obama and newly empowered
Republican leaders professed a desire Wednesday to work
together but yielded little ground on deep policy
differences, foreshadowing the profound challenge of turning
around a flagging economy under a divided government.
After what Mr. Obama described as an electoral "shellacking"
for his party, the two sides gingerly explored the reshaped
political terrain and sought to define Tuesday's results.
Republicans claimed a mandate to reverse Mr. Obama's agenda
while the president cast the vote as a cry of frustration
that he has not moved fast enough.
"Over the last two years, we've made progress,"
Mr. Obama said at a White House news conference intended to
reassert his leadership as Republicans celebrated their
capture of the House and gains in the Senate. "But,
clearly, too many Americans haven't felt that progress yet,
and they told us that yesterday. And as president, I take
responsibility for that."
More conciliatory than contrite, Mr. Obama used that
phrase, "take responsibility," six times but
rejected the suggestion that his policies were moving the
country in the wrong direction. He conceded that legislation
to limit greenhouse gases was dead and said he was "absolutely"
willing to negotiate over the extension of tax cuts,
including for the wealthy. But he drew the line at any major
retreat from signature priorities, saying he would agree to
"tweak" his health care program, not "relitigate
arguments" over its central elements.
While Republicans also called for more cooperation,
they suggested that Democrats might not have fully absorbed
the lessons of their drubbing.
"Their view is that we haven't cooperated enough,"
said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican
minority leader. "I think what the American people were
saying yesterday is that they appreciated us saying no to
the things that the American people indicated they were not
in favor of."
The trials awaiting a fractured capital could arrive
swiftly when the departing Democratic-controlled Congress
returns in lame-duck session this month with contentious
issues like tax cuts, the federal debt limit, unemployment
insurance, an arms control treaty with Russia and gay men
and lesbians in the military all on the table.
As Washington awoke to the new order on Wednesday,
Republicans had picked up at least 60 seats in the House,
with 11 races undecided, the biggest swing since the 1948
elections under President Harry S. Truman. They took at
least six seats in the Senate, falling short of control,
with two races undecided.
In Colorado, Senator Michael Bennet, the Democrat, won,
while in Washington Senator Patty Murray led her Republican
challenger by one percentage point. In Alaska, Senator Lisa
Murkowski, who ran as a write-in after losing the Republican
primary, appeared poised to surpass both party nominees. If
the incumbents hang onto their seats, The Democratic caucus
will have a majority of 53 to 47.
The election results immediately played out on Capitol
Hill as House Republicans began a leadership shuffle and
Democrats awaited a decision by Speaker Nancy Pelosi of
California on whether she intended to remain as her party's
leader in the minority. Ms. Pelosi told Diane Sawyer of ABC
News that she would talk with her family "and pray over
it" before deciding but added that she had "no
regrets" and blamed the economy for her party's losses.
"Nine and a half percent unemployment is a very
eclipsing event," she said. "If people don't have
a job, they're not too interested in how you intend for them
to have a job. They want to see results."
Their rise to power means Republicans have more
leadership positions to fill. With Representative John A.
Boehner of Ohio slated to become speaker and Representative
Eric Cantor of Virginia expected to become majority leader,
Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, who was active
in recruiting candidates this year, announced he would seek
the No. 3 job of majority whip.
Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, formerly leader
of a bloc of House conservatives, is seeking the No. 4 slot,
conference chairman. He could face a challenge from
Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, a Tea Party
favorite.
Making his debut as speaker in waiting, Mr. Boehner
predicted that he would be able to work well with the
incoming conservative class elected on Tuesday. "What
unites us as Republicans will be the agenda of the American
people," he said. "And if we're listening to the
American people, I don't see any problems incorporating
members of the Tea Party, along with our party, in a quest
that's really the same."
Mr. Boehner could find that unity tested, probably
early next year, when the House must vote on raising the
federal debt ceiling. Most Republicans in recent years have
refused to support such increases, and many candidates this
year ran on a platform opposing any increase in red ink. But
as the party soon to be in charge of the House, Republicans
run the risk of triggering a government default and a
financial crisis should they refuse to increase federal
borrowing power.
Mr. Boehner had no ready answer for how Republicans
would handle the potentially explosive issue. "We'll be
working that out over the next couple of months," he
said.
Except for early in President George W. Bush's tenure,
when a party switch briefly handed control of the Senate to
Democrats, this will be the first time Congress has been
split between the parties since the 1986 election. The
Senate may prove useful to Mr. Obama in killing Republican
initiatives he opposes but it remains unclear whether he
will be able to play off a Republican House heading into
2012 the way President Bill Clinton used a Republican-controlled
Congress as a foil for his re-election in 1996.
The divide between the two chambers was evident as
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, having
survived an election scare, emerged to argue that the lesson
of the election was that voters want more cooperation from
the parties. The onus, he said, is on Republicans.
"Republicans must take their responsibility to
solve the problems of ordinary Americans," Mr. Reid
said in a conference call with reporters. "No is not
the answer. It has to be yes. Not our yes, but a combined
yes, something we work out, a consensus yes. The time for
politics is over."
Weakened by the election results, Mr. Obama sought
Wednesday to occupy the public stage and take his punishment
without surrendering stature. He announced no staff shuffle
or new direction, as presidents sometimes do when they get
in trouble. But he called the defeat "humbling"
and said "it feels bad" to see so many allies go
down for voting for his program.
"This is something that I think every president
needs to go through," he said. "In the rush of
activity, sometimes we lose track of, you know, the ways
that we connected with voters that got us here in the first
place."
Living in the White House, he said, "it is hard
not to seem removed."
But he quickly added, to laughter: "Now, I'm not
recommending for every future president that they take a
shellacking like I did last night. I'm sure there are easier
ways to learn these lessons."
Still, his analysis of that shellacking differed
sharply from that of the Republicans and many independent
strategists. He agreed that many voters felt government was
growing too large and intrusive. But he maintained his were
still the right policies.
"It would be hard to argue that we're going
backwards," he said. "I think what you can argue
is we're stuck in neutral."
Where he conceded a misstep was in failing to follow
through on promises to reform the way Washington works out
of a need to confront the economic crises he inherited:
"We were in such a hurry to get things done that we
didn't change how things got done. And I think that
frustrated people."
Mr. Obama said he was "very eager to sit down"
with Republicans and laid out "a whole bunch of areas
where we can agree," including job creation, deficit
reduction, energy independence, education reform and
infrastructure investment. While a carbon cap cannot pass
"this year or next year or the year after," he
said, he suggested that he and Republicans could collaborate
to promote natural gas, electric cars and nuclear energy.
He specifically embraced a proposal by Mr. Cantor to
impose a moratorium on special Congressional spending items
known as earmarks. Asked if there was anything in the
Republicans' Pledge to America campaign manifesto that he
could support, he mentioned its promises to reform how
Washington works.
"I do believe there is hope for civility," he
said. "I do believe there's hope for progress."
Megan Thee-Brenan, Michael Luo and Joseph Berger
contributed reporting.