Rebelión europea contra la austeridad
Por Paul Krugman (*)
The
New York Times, 06/05/2012
La Nación, 08/05/2012
Nueva York.– Los franceses se rebelan.
Los griegos, también. Y ya era hora. Ambos países celebraron
anteayer elecciones que fueron en realidad referéndums sobre
la actual estrategia económica europea. Y en ambos países
los votantes la rechazaron. No está nada claro cuánto tiempo
pasará antes de que los votos produzcan cambios concretos en
la política, pero el tiempo se está acabando para la
estrategia de recuperación por medio de la austeridad... y
eso es bueno.
Fue divertido ver a los apóstoles de la
ortodoxia tratando de describir al cauteloso François
Hollande como una figura amenazante. Es "bastante
peligroso", declaró The Economist.
Lo cierto es que la victoria de Hollande
significa el final del "Merkozy", el eje franco-alemán
que ha puesto en vigor el régimen de austeridad de los últimos
dos años. El triunfo de Hollande sería un acontecimiento
"peligroso" si esa estrategia estuviera funcionando.
Pero no está funcionando ni tiene posibilidad de hacerlo, y
es hora de pasar a otra cosa.
¿Qué está mal en la receta de recortar
gastos como remedio para los males de Europa? Los recortes de
gastos en una economía deprimida simplemente profundizan la
depresión. Pensemos en el caso de Irlanda, que ha impuesto
una austeridad cada vez mayor en un intento de recuperar el
favor de los mercados de bonos. Según la ortodoxia
predominante, eso debía funcionar. Pero no fue así. Los
costos de los préstamos para los irlandeses siguen siendo
mucho más altos que los de España o Italia. Entonces, ¿cuáles
son las alternativas?
Una respuesta sería disolver el euro.
Europa no estaría en este problema si Grecia todavía tuviera
su dracma; España, su peseta; Irlanda, su libra irlandesa, y
así sucesivamente, porque estos países tendrían algo de lo
que ahora carecen: una manera rápida de restaurar la
competitividad de costos y estimular las importaciones, vale
decir, la devaluación. Como contrapunto de la triste historia
irlandesa, consideremos el caso de Islandia, que fue punto de
partida de la crisis financiera, pero pudo responder
devaluando su moneda, la corona islandesa. Islandia está
experimentando la recuperación que supuestamente vive
Irlanda, pero que no es verdad.
Sin embargo, disolver el euro sería muy
perjudicial y representaría una enorme derrota del
"proyecto europeo", el prolongado esfuerzo para
promover la paz y la democracia por medio de una integración
más estrecha.
¿Hay alguna otra manera de salir de la
crisis? Sí, la hay. Si uno habla de la eurocrisis con los líderes
de opinión de Alemania, verá que lo más probable es que señalen
que su propia economía estaba de capa caída en los primeros
años de la década pasada, pero consiguió recuperarse. Lo
que nos les gusta reconocer es que esa recuperación fue
generada por la aparición de un enorme superávit comercial
alemán comparado con otros países europeos. La experiencia
de Alemania no es, como imaginan los alemanes, un argumento
para justificar la austeridad en el sur de Europa; es un
argumento para implementar políticas mucho más
expansionistas en todas partes.
* Premio Nóbel de Economía 2008.
Those
Revolting Europeans
By
Paul Krugman
New York Times,
May 6, 2012
Both
countries held elections Sunday that were in effect
referendums on the current European economic strategy, and in
both countries voters turned two thumbs down. It’s far from
clear how soon the votes will lead to changes in actual policy,
but time is clearly running out for the strategy of recovery
through austerity — and that’s a good thing.
Needless
to say, that’s not what you heard from the usual suspects in
the run-up to the elections. It was actually kind of funny to
see the apostles of orthodoxy trying to portray the cautious,
mild-mannered François Hollande as a figure of menace. He is
“rather dangerous,” declared The Economist, which observed
that he “genuinely believes in the need to create a fairer
society.” Quelle horreur!
What
is true is that Mr. Hollande’s victory means the end of “Merkozy,”
the Franco-German axis that has enforced the austerity regime
of the past two years. This would be a “dangerous”
development if that strategy were working, or even had a
reasonable chance of working. But it isn’t and doesn’t; it’s
time to move on. Europe’s voters, it turns out, are wiser
than the Continent’s best and brightest.
What’s
wrong with the prescription of spending cuts as the remedy for
Europe’s ills? One answer is that the confidence fairy doesn’t
exist — that is, claims that slashing government spending
would somehow encourage consumers and businesses to spend more
have been overwhelmingly refuted by the experience of the past
two years. So spending cuts in a depressed economy just make
the depression deeper.
Moreover,
there seems to be little if any gain in return for the pain.
Consider the case of Ireland, which has been a good soldier in
this crisis, imposing ever-harsher austerity in an attempt to
win back the favor of the bond markets. According to the
prevailing orthodoxy, this should work. In fact, the will to
believe is so strong that members of Europe’s policy elite
keep proclaiming that Irish austerity has indeed worked, that
the Irish economy has begun to recover.
But
it hasn’t. And although you’d never know it from much of
the press coverage, Irish borrowing costs remain much higher
than those of Spain or Italy, let alone Germany. So what are
the alternatives?
One
answer — an answer that makes more sense than almost anyone
in Europe is willing to admit — would be to break up the
euro, Europe’s common currency. Europe wouldn’t be in this
fix if Greece still had its drachma, Spain its peseta, Ireland
its punt, and so on, because Greece and Spain would have what
they now lack: a quick way to restore cost-competitiveness and
boost exports, namely devaluation.
As
a counterpoint to Ireland’s sad story, consider the case of
Iceland, which was ground zero for the financial crisis but
was able to respond by devaluing its currency, the krona (and
also had the courage to let its banks fail and default on
their debts). Sure enough, Iceland is experiencing the
recovery Ireland was supposed to have, but hasn’t.
Yet
breaking up the euro would be highly disruptive, and would
also represent a huge defeat for the “European project,”
the long-run effort to promote peace and democracy through
closer integration. Is there another way? Yes, there is —
and the Germans have shown how that way can work.
Unfortunately, they don’t understand the lessons of their
own experience.
Talk
to German opinion leaders about the euro crisis, and they like
to point out that their own economy was in the doldrums in the
early years of the last decade but managed to recover. What
they don’t like to acknowledge is that this recovery was
driven by the emergence of a huge German trade surplus vis-à-vis
other European countries — in particular, vis-à-vis the
nations now in crisis — which were booming, and experiencing
above-normal inflation, thanks to low interest rates. Europe’s
crisis countries might be able to emulate Germany’s success
if they faced a comparably favorable environment — that is,
if this time it was the rest of Europe, especially Germany,
that was experiencing a bit of an inflationary boom.
So
Germany’s experience isn’t, as the Germans imagine, an
argument for unilateral austerity in Southern Europe; it’s
an argument for much more expansionary policies elsewhere, and
in particular for the European Central Bank to drop its
obsession with inflation and focus on growth.
The
Germans, needless to say, don’t like this conclusion, nor
does the leadership of the central bank. They will cling to
their fantasies of prosperity through pain, and will insist
that continuing with their failed strategy is the only
responsible thing to do. But it seems that they will no longer
have unquestioning support from the Élysée Palace. And that,
believe it or not, means that both the euro and the European
project now have a better chance of surviving than they did a
few days ago.
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