Pakistan–US
plan falls into place
By
Syed Saleem Shahzad (*)
Asia
Times, Jul 24, 2009
Karachi,
Pakistan.– The seamless friendship between the chairman of
the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike
Mullen, and Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq
Parvez Kiani, has cemented the relationship between the
military establishments of the two countries to levels not
seen since the 1950s, when Pakistan was a frontline state
against communism.
The
result is that Islamabad and Washington are in a position to
implement coordinated, long–term policies in the region,
which include action against militants, moves to improve
ties between Pakistan and India, especially their dispute
over divided Kashmir, and the evolution of a broad–based,
stable civilian government in Pakistan.
However,
just as the US and Pakistan have forged a united front, so
too have the previously splintered militants and groups that
oppose them in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, setting the
stage for a struggle of unprecedented proportions.
The
new relationship between the US and Pakistan, supported by a
host of American advisors based in the capital Islamabad, is
expected to play out on two main fronts.
First,
Pakistan will launch a comprehensive battle against all
Taliban groups in the country, irrespective of whether they
are perceived as good or bad. Over the years, there have
been numerous attempts to split the Taliban by making deals
with the good ones, that is, those seen as more moderate, to
bring them into a peace process.
Second,
an initiative will be made by the Pakistani government,
supported by the country's Western allies, for better
relations with India, strongly mediated by the Pakistan army.
The aim will be to reopen the dialogue process on Kashmir
which was stalled following the Pakistani–linked terror
attack on the Indian city of Mumbai last November in which
166 people were killed. This could also help in building a
joint mechanism for cooperation between India and Pakistan
with the US in fighting terror.
Militants reorganize
In
recent months, different militant groups located in the
North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas on the
border with Afghanistan have united. At the same time, an
al–Qaeda group led by Abdullah Saeed is participating in
the belated spring offensive in Afghanistan – it marked
this by shooting down a US aircraft in Paktia province last
week.
The
powerful Haqqani network is also flexing its muscles – it
is behind the capture of a US soldier who appears on a
recently released video that has caused outrage in the US
over the abuse of prisoners of war. The prisoner is believed
to be at a Haqqani base in North Waziristan. The group is
beefing up its military presence in and around the two
Waziristans in an area said to be the headquarters of three
powerful networks that have allied.
The
networks are that of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah
Mehsud in South Waziristan, al–Qaeda's at the crossroads
of the two Waziristans and Sirajuddin Haqqani's group in
North Waziristan.
Asia
Times Online has learnt that Pakistan has gradually moved
its forces into Bannu, the principal city of Bannu district
in North–West Frontier Province (NWFP), and Dera Ismail
Khan, another city in NWFP. It has also stationed troops in
the Waziristans. Tension is rising there, with the Taliban
having disrupted the supply lines of troops based in North
Waziristan.
The
deadline for the beginning of an all–out operation is not
known. It will be the first time that all Taliban groups are
targeted – the Sirajuddin network has traditionally been
pro–establishment.
The good and now the bad
Pakistan's
Inter–Services Intelligence (ISI), US intelligence and
Arab states have for many years maintained excellent
relations with Jalaluddin Haqqani, the legendary Afghan
commander against the Soviets in the 1980s. Haqqani, now
seriously ill, supported the Taliban movement in the mid–1990s
on the instructions of the ISI. But the Taliban never
considered him a part of the movement, more as a warlord who
had allied with them.
As
a result, Haqqani was never given any significant position
in the Taliban regime. When the Taliban abandoned Kabul in
the face of the US–led invasion in late 2001, Islamabad
tried hard to get him to abandon Taliban leader Mullah Omar
and become the next head of the Afghan government. He flatly
refused the proposal and went to a base in North Waziristan.
In
2006, he was elevated by the Taliban to the number one
commander in Afghanistan. Pakistan was not too concerned as
Haqqani had never meddled in the internal affairs of
Pakistan, never allied with a Pakistani political party or
group and he had never supported any mutiny in Pakistan.
But
now that Haqqani is ill and bed–ridden, his power has been
handed to his son Sirajuddin. Siraj's strength, like his
father's, is his Punjabi comrades, but his friendship with
al–Qaeda's Arab ideologues has influenced him.
Unlike
his father, Siraj is close to Pakistan militants hostile to
the establishment. The intelligence apparatus was prepared
to overlook this, but not any more.
Some
while ago, Siraj's brother, Dr Naseer Haqqani, was arrested
while attending a meeting that included several wanted
people. To the surprise of the security forces, Baitullah
Mehsud negotiated for his release, agreeing to swap a few
Pakistani soldiers for the detained man. Subsequently,
Baitullah and Sirajuddin became close.
This
explains the failure of the recent operation to get
Baitullah. It depended on the cooperation of local anti–Baitullah
tribes who happened to be Taliban, such as those of Mullah
Nazir and Gul Bahadur and the now slain Qari Zainuddin
Mehsud. Sirajuddin quickly sent messages for all commanders
to unite in support of Baitullah, and their compliance ended
any hope of him being isolated.
It
also explains why the Haqqani network is now in the sights
of the military as it prepares for a renewed battle against
militants.
On
the domestic front, the friendship of Kiani and Mullen has
led to the acknowledgement that if military goals are to be
achieved, the country needs a stable democratic government.
This
explains President Asif Zardari's recent visit to opposition
leader Nawaz Sharif, the chief of the Pakistan Muslim League
Nawaz (PML–N), at his residence near Lahore. Zardari
proposed to bring the PML–N into the ruling coalition
government, possibly with Sharif as prime minister.
Sharif's
reservations over extensive presidential powers are the main
stumbling block. But whether or not Sharif accepts cabinet
portfolios for his party or the premiership for himself, his
party is completely onboard with the government's national
and international policies.
"In
principle, Pakistan has agreed on a stable government,
cordial ties with India and support of the war on terror.
But for the first time, Admiral Mike Mullen and Ashfaq
Parvez Kiani have made a joint initiative to implement this
principle under a set mechanism so that there can be no
deviations," a senior Pakistani diplomat told Asia
Times Online on condition of anonymity.
The
militants, too, have their mechanisms in place, and they too
don't plan to deviate. A mighty collision is inevitable.
(*) Syed Saleem Shahzad es jefe del buró en Pakistán
de Asia Times Online.
|