Standing
before a joint session of Parliament in 2006, President
Hosni Mubarak of Egypt told lawmakers what most in
attendance had already assumed: He planned to stay in power
until the day he died.
The
speech was not offered as a threat or boast, but as comfort,
because in Mr. Mubarak’s Egypt it had become an article of
faith for his allies that stability required his continued
stewardship.
“I
will pursue with you the march of transition into the future,
shouldering the responsibility and burdens as long as I draw
breath and my heart beats in my chest,” he told the joint
session of Parliament on its opening day. “I will neither
falter nor shake.”
Now
five years later, as Egypt quakes beneath the fury of a huge
public uprising and tanks roll through its cities, that
compact between Mr. Mubarak and his subjects has broken. His
focus on stability, which relied heavily on police powers
and support from the West, has proved to be his greatest
liability. Protesters now march through the streets chanting
slogans like this: “Down, down, down Mubarak!”
The
litany of complaints against Mr. Mubarak is well known to
anyone who has spent time in any coffee shop or on any
corner chatting in any city in Egypt. The police are brutal.
Elections are rigged. Corruption is rampant. Life gets
harder for the masses as the rich grow richer and the poor
grow poorer. Even as Egypt’s economy enjoyed record growth
in recent years, the number of people living in poverty
actually grew.
“I
graduated from the university about 16 years ago, and the
only jobs open to me were cleaning other people’s houses,”
said Ali Suleiman one day last week as he stood in the
center of the city, offering a common lament. “I am lucky
I was able to start selling newspapers. I have three
daughters, and I make about 20 pounds,” or $3.50, a day.
That
is Mr. Mubarak’s Egypt, a place where about half the
population lives on $2 a day or less, and walled compounds
spring up outside cities with green lawns and swimming pools
and names like Swan Lake. It is a place where those with
money have built a parallel world of private schools and
exclusive clubs, leaving the rundown cities to the poor.
“The
whole system is seen as being his fault,” said Anne Mariel
Peters, an assistant professor at Wesleyan University, who
closely follows events in Egypt. “People do believe that
Mubarak is the absolute dictator.”
To
many Egyptians, and to many who have closely followed Mr.
Mubarak’s authoritarian government over his nearly three
decades in power, the surprise is not that he is widely
despised, but that so many are no longer afraid to speak
their mind. That hostility may prove to be the epitaph of Mr.
Mubarak, a former air force general, who told Egyptians on
the day of his inaugural in 1981: “We will embark on our
great path: not stopping or hesitating, building and not
destroying, protecting and not threatening, preserving and
not squandering.”
But
it is the fault of the government he built, where all power
ultimately rested in his hand, political scientists said.
“Once you hollow out civil society and repress the unions
and you concentrate so much power around your hands, you are
vulnerable and it becomes the flip side of stability,”
said Diane Singerman, a professor at American University in
Washington who has followed events in Egypt for years. “I
think he is hated for good reason: the constant humiliation,
the over–the–top sort of need to control everything, the
excessive force.”
Mr.
Mubarak, 82, became president in 1981 after his predecessor,
Anwar el–Sadat, was assassinated while the two men sat in
a reviewing stand at a military parade. He came to power
with a vision — and a mandate — to try to preserve
stability. It was the perfect calling for a military man
schooled in the former Soviet Union who made one of his
first acts the imposition of an emergency law. The law gave
his government the ability to fight the extremists who
killed Mr. Sadat and for years after would violently
threaten the state.
Mr.
Mubarak did not come to office with an ideology, like the
pan–Arabism of Gamal Abdel Nasser. He did not promote bold
ideas, like Mr. Sadat’s peace treaty with Israel. He was a
cautious man, glacial in his pace, whose early years as
president were spent steering his nation through a minefield
of economic and political crises.
“You
can divide the period of Mubarak into two periods: one
battling militants and one transforming Egypt to a civic
state,” said Gihad Ouda, a member of Mr. Mubarak’s
National Democratic Party. Early on, the president also
helped steer Egypt back into the Arab fold, after it had
been ostracized for its treaty with Israel. He had other
foreign policy successes in helping reconcile the
Palestinians and Israelis.
What
has impelled so many to the streets is the collateral damage,
the hurt and anger after years of repressive rule and
cronyism. Mr. Mubarak kept the emergency law in place so
that his government had the ability to arrest and detain
without charge, to limit public gatherings, to operate a
special state security court. His police culture fostered a
sense of impunity for law enforcement that led to widespread
reliance on torture.
One
case that drew widespread international condemnation
involved a cellphone video of police officers sodomizing a
driver with a broomstick. In June 2010, Alexandria erupted
in protests over the fatal beating by police officers of
Khaled Said, 28. The authorities said he died choking on a
clump of marijuana, until a photograph emerged of his
bloodied face. Just last month, a suspect being questioned
in connection with a bombing was beaten to death while in
police custody.
In
recent years, the president appointed a cabinet, led by
Ahmed Nazif, a technocrat, with the mandate to overhaul and
liberalize the economy. It made some progress and won
plaudits. In the end, though, it may have undermined
stability because there was more money in the country —
but it was not trickling down.
“Egyptians
are sick and tired of being corrupted and when you live on
300 pounds a month,” about $51, “you have one of two
options: you either become a beggar or a thief,” said
Ghada Shabandar, a longtime human rights activist. “The
people sent a message: ‘We are not beggars and we do not
want to become thieves.’ ”
Mr.
Mubarak and his allies did not see the danger coming. They
had succeeded over the years in managing the anger, co–opting
those they could, suppressing others. In November, they
thought they had succeeded in further consolidating power
— and in their view increasing stability — after widely
criticized parliamentary elections in which the president’s
party won about 500 seats in Parliament, leaving fewer than
20 to the opposition. That helped set off the recent days of
rage.
The
anger was compounded by speculation that Mr. Mubarak planned
to have his son Gamal succeed him. “We all want at least
some minimum ground for democracy and a comfortable standard
of living and some sort of justice in the distribution of
income,” said Asmaa Mahfouz, 25, one of the founders of
the April 6 Youth Movement, which organized the
demonstrations this week. “We want to fight corruption.
These are all things that we have agreed on.”
And
one more item, which the protesters shouted from the
barricades: President Mubarak has to go.