Syria's Sectarian Fears Keep Region on Edge
By Tim Arango (*)
New York Times, February 28, 2012
Najaf, Iraq – Abu Ali fled his life as a Shiite
cleric and student in Homs, the besieged Syrian city at the
center of an increasingly bloody uprising, but it was not
the government he feared.
People
watched Tuesday's funeral procession for a man killed by
shrapnel in Qusayr, Syria, near Lebanon's border.
Nearby
nations view the strife with alarm.
It was the rebels, who he said killed three of his
cousins in December and dumped a body in the family garbage
bin.
"I can't be in Homs because I will get killed
there," he said from this religious city in Iraq where
he has taken refuge. "Not just me, but all Shiites."
Like his fellow Shiites in Iraq, Abu Ali, who used his
nickname to protect his family back in Syria, said he
regards the Syrian rebels as terrorists, not freedom
fighters, underscoring one of the complexities of a bloody
civil conflict that has persisted as diplomatic efforts have
failed. In spite of President Bashar al–Assad's
willingness to unleash a professional military on a civilian
population, with lethal results, Mr. Assad retains some
support at home and abroad from allies, including religious
and ethnic minorities who for decades relied on the police
state for protection from sectarian aggression.
"What the government is doing is trying to protect
the people," Abu Ali said, echoing the Assad
government's propaganda. "They are targeting terrorist
groups in the area."
The insurrection in Syria, led by the country's Sunni
majority in opposition to a government dominated by Alawites,
an offshoot of Shiism, is increasingly unpredictable and
dangerous because it is aggravating sectarian tensions
beyond its borders in a region already shaken by religious
and ethnic divisions.
For many in the region, the fight in Syria is less
about liberating a people under dictatorship than it is
about power and self–interest. Syria is drawing in
sectarian forces from its neighbors, and threatening to
spill its conflict into a wider conflagration. There have
already been sparks in neighboring Lebanon, where Sunnis and
Alawites have skirmished.
And here in Iraq, where Shiites are a majority, the
events across the border have put the nation on edge while
hardening a sectarian schism. As Abu Ali discovered, Iraq's
Shiites are now lined up on the side of a Baathist
dictatorship in Syria, less than a decade after the American
invasion of Iraq toppled the rule of Saddam Hussein and his
own Baath Party, which for decades had repressed and
brutalized the Shiites.
"This is difficult," said Sheik Ali Nujafi,
the son of one of Najaf's top clerics and his chief
spokesman, of the Shiite support for Mr. Assad. "But
what is worse is what would come next."
The paradox, of Shiites supporting a Baathist dictator
next door, has laid bare a tenet of the old power structure
that for so long helped preserve the Middle East's strongmen.
Minorities often remained loyal and pliant and in exchange
were given room to carve out communities, even if they were
more broadly discriminated against.
As dictators have fallen in neighboring countries,
religious and ethnic identities and alliances have only
hardened, while notions of citizenship remain slow to take
hold. The fighting in Syria has exacerbated that, as Shiites
worry that a takeover of Syria by its Sunni majority would
herald not only a new sectarian war but actually the
apocalypse.
People here say that is not hyperbole, but a perception
based in faith. Some Shiites here see the burgeoning civil
war in Syria as the ominous start to the fulfillment of a
Shiite prophecy that presages the end of time. According to
Shiite lore, Sufyani – a devil–like, apocryphal figure
in Islam – gathers an army in Syria and after conquering
that land turns his wrath on Iraq's Shiites.
"Among these stories we get from the Prophet and
his family is that Sufyani will come out and will start to
kill the believers in Syria, and then come to Iraq, where
there will be many killings and massacres," Mr. Nujafi
said.
He said events in Syria were "similar but not
completely the same" as the story of Sufyani. With an
easy grasp of history, he recalled the siege of Najaf and
the sacking of Karbala, another holy city to the north, in
the early 1800s by radically orthodox Sunni Muslims, an
invasion that raised the same apocalyptic fears Shiites have
now.
In Hilla, another Shiite town north of here, Mohammed
Tawfiq al–Rubaie, the representative for Ayatollah Ali
al–Sistani, the most widely followed Shiite religious
leader in Iraq, said, "We wish for the survival of
Bashar al–Assad, but the prophecies of the Shiite books
expect him to be killed."
Mr. Rubaie explained what Shiites believe would happen
if the Assad government were toppled by Sunnis: "We
expect that the blood would run heavy in Iraq if they held
power in Syria, because they think that Shiites are infidels
and our lives, our money and our women are permissible for
them to take, and that killing us is one of the requirements
to enter paradise."
As Western and Arab governments consider actions to
stop the bloodshed – options that have been explored
include more aggressive diplomacy, arming the rebels or
military intervention – those discussions have been
encumbered by a lack of cohesion among the Syrian opposition,
evidence that some of the rebels may be affiliated with Al
Qaeda and credible reports of sectarian killings.
At the core of the unity problem is an issue of
sectarian identification. Sunni radicals with the Islamic
State of Iraq, an umbrella group that includes the local
branch of Al Qaeda, have urged fighters to go to Syria,
which makes it harder for the West to embrace the opposition.
Recently the group released a statement on its Web site
calling for new violence against Shiites here in Iraq,
according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors the
communications of jihadist groups.
Syria's minorities have the example of Iraq in
considering their own future, should the Assad government
fall: Assyrian Christians, Yazidis and others were brutally
persecuted by insurgents. In Egypt, where a similar paradigm
was toppled with the long–serving dictator Hosni Mubarak,
Christians have experienced more sectarian violence,
increasing political marginalization and a growing link
between Islamic identity and citizenship.
"Christians are all saying that Syria risks
becoming the new Iraq, a country divided among ethnic and
religious lines where there is no place for Christians,"
said the Rev. Bernardo Cervellera, the editor in chief of
AsiaNews, a Catholic news agency. Syria, while not a
democracy, "at least protects them," he said.
Abu Ali recalled hearing anti–Shiite slogans chanted
in Homs by rebels in opposition to Syria's alliance with
Iran, which, like Iraq, is a majority–Shiite state in a
region that is predominantly Sunni. He heard calls for
"Christians to go to Beirut," and "Alawites
to the grave."
In Najaf on a recent Sunday, Abu Ali sat on a couch in
the office of a local religious leader who had taken him in.
Outside, chickens roamed the narrow streets lined by flat–roofed
concrete homes, jostling for space with women covered in
black abayas and security men who guarded the office with
assault rifles.
At the main checkpoint on the outskirts of the city, a
billboard hailed Najaf, where millions come each year to
visit the Imam Ali Shrine, as this year's "capital of
Islamic culture."
On this day, Syria was holding a vote on a new
constitution, an effort at reform by the Assad government
that much of the international community regarded as a farce,
but that Abu Ali believed was a step in good faith to stop
the violence.
"Of course, the government needs to reform, and
there needs to be more freedom and more rights," he
said. "The government is trying to make reforms, but no
one is listening."
But his fear, he said, is that Syria is heading down
the same bloody path that Iraq followed after the American
invasion.
"In the neighborhoods that are Sunni, they are
kicking out Shiites and using their homes as bases and for
the storing of weapons," he said.
He added, "There's real terror among the Shiites
there."
* Reporting was contributed by
Elisabetta Povoledo from Rome, Duraid Adnan and Iraqi
employees of The New York Times from Hilla, Iraq, and Najaf,
and Yasir Ghazi from Baghdad.
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